Right now, uncertainty feels like the only certainty for consultants, small charities, and the people we support. The ground keeps shifting beneath us: funding gaps, changing policies, new technologies, and unexpected crises. It can feel like we’re steering through fog.

But uncertainty doesn’t have to mean paralysis. By understanding what kind of uncertainty we’re facing and adjusting how we navigate it, we can move forward with more clarity and confidence.

Understanding the situation

One way to steady yourself is to understand the kind of situation you’re actually in. The Cynefin Framework, developed by Dave Snowden, helps with this. It distinguishes between predictable contexts, where cause and effect are clear, and chaotic ones, where they’re not. Here’s a link to a video outlining the tool.

Too often, we treat every situation as chaotic, assuming it’s entirely new and that we have to fix it alone. But when we pause to sense what’s really happening, we often find that we’re in complicated or complex situations instead: where patterns can be explored, guidance can be drawn on from others, experiments can be run, and insights can emerge. Naming the type of uncertainty we face gives us a way to respond more wisely.

Finding the constants

A helpful metaphor for this sense-making is the kaleidoscope (credit to Mo Spargo for this concept). Each turn creates a different pattern, yet the same pieces are always there. The image changes, but the colours remain constant.

In the same way, scenario planning invites us to identify our constants: the core elements that remain steady even as everything else moves. For charities, this might be the community you serve, your relationships, your values, or your fundamental purpose. For consultants, it might be your approach, integrity, or principles.

By naming these constants, you give yourself something to hold onto. Then, when the pattern shifts, you can see how those same pieces rearrange and make decisions grounded in clarity rather than panic.

Setting the direction

Once you’ve understood your situation and your constants, it’s time to look outward and forward. Here I like to use another metaphor: the telescope and the compass. Use your telescope to imagine the far horizon: three strategic cycles ahead, beyond today’s turbulence and fog. What does success look and feel like there? How do you want your work, your team, and your impact to show up? Set this vision for the future so you know the destination you are aiming for.

Then, turn to your compass. It helps you navigate the present: the small, deliberate actions that keep you moving toward that vision, even as you tack and turn with the winds around you. The telescope gives you purpose; the compass keeps you adaptable. Together, they make navigation possible.

Closing reflection

Uncertainty isn’t going away. But how we respond to it can change everything.

By understanding the context, recognising our constants, and staying attuned to both the future vision and the moment, we can lead with greater steadiness in shifting times.

Written by Flora Raffai